Intensifying War of Words Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Sparks Anxieties of Military Confrontation

Growing apprehensions have emerged over the chance of armed conflict among East African countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as confrontational language has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Ties between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, rendering it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and army chief the army commander have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Despite continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking previous domains.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of major military movements in the frontier regions between the neighboring states.

Nevertheless, in the country, national TV has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the ruler cancelled this agreement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then endorsed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders signed a statement that the hostilities was finished – a move that gained the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's previous civil war in the northern region.

But ties have later worsened once more.