Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
