Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
